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Марийский государственный университет
Опорный вуз Марий ЭлУчастник программы "Приоритет 2030"

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Университет

Impact of external shocks on the world and European economies: life before, during and after COVID - 19. Discussion at the 55th meeting of the political science club "Socrates"

03.05.2021

In a continuing series of meetings of the political science club "Socrates", the hour has struck for a conversation on economic issues, which always hovers in the space woven by politics.

Once thrown out together with the "dishwater", which in the early 90s was mistakenly considered political economy, the economic aspects of politics were on the sidelines of political science, for which it is currently being rightly criticized. Correcting this unfortunate mistake, we decided to devote a meeting to this vital area of human activity.

This time, the doors of the Institute of National Culture and Intercultural Communication opened for students of international studies and journalism. Opening the meeting of the political science club, its moderator, Associate Professor and Candidate of Political Sciences E. Suslov stressed that the coronavirus pandemic has become an unprecedented and serious test for all countries of the world. The European Union, as a political union of countries that does not have the status of a state, has not escaped this test of strength. In the face of threats like COVID-19, the process of strengthening statehood is taking place, pushing non-state actors to secondary, less impactful roles. Many experts predicted the imminent unambiguous decline of the EU in its organizing role and loss of political status, if not its destruction altogether. However, these predictions were not destined to come true. The external shock in the form of COVID-19 made it possible to discover the internal resources of the EU economy and ensure progressive development for the countries of the European Union.

Speaker and expert G.Tsvetkova, Associate Professor and Candidate of Economic Sciences made a report on the impact of external shock on the world and European economies in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods. Considering the pandemic from a scientific point of view, the expert suggested looking at the event from the perspective of the concept of the "Black Swan" by N. Taleb. According to Taleb, the "Black Swan" is an event with a very low probability of occurrence, which leads to catastrophic consequences when it really happens. "Black Swans" are sudden and large-scale phenomena that radically change the course of history: i.e. wars, financial crises, the emergence of the Internet, etc. A "Black Swan" has three identifying properties: high unpredictability, potentially serious consequences and retrospective predictability. According to Associate Professor G.Tsvetkova, COVID-19 was an impressive and somewhat unexpected event that some may qualify as a black swan. Taleb, however, did not agree that the COVID-19 pandemic is a black swan because of the first characteristic. This is due to the fact that epidemiologists do not consider major pandemics accidental, but consider them inevitable.

As for shocks, in macroeconomics, they are identified with non-price determinants that shift the curves of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, as a result of which the market adapts to their impact by forming a new point of macroeconomic development. To be more concise, the shock has a negative association with being "destructive" to the system, however, they can be positive, negative, and/or neutral. This is the conclusion that Associate Professor G. Tsvetkova came to. Thus, the force of the impact of shocks should be so significant for the system that it forces it to change, since the former mechanism of maintaining its integrity (balance, stability) is destroyed and a new mechanism of self-organization is formed instead. An example of this is Singapore. known in the world for its economic miracle, it was named the country that most successfully passed the unexpected test of the epidemic.

Дополнением к содержательному докладу эксперта стали содоклады студентов-международников 4 курса Н.Соколовой, Е.Трухиной и К.Колесникова.

In addition to the substantive report of the expert were the co-reports of 4th year students N.Sokolova, E.Trukhina and K. Kolesnikov.


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